We’re getting close to a major congressional election, and the early maneuvers of the 2012 presidential race are under way. That means it’s time to worry about independent voters again.
Independents are the battleground where national elections are fought. The winning formula involves some combination of motivating the party base, suppressing the other party’s base, and gaining support from independent voters. The tactics necessary to succeed at any one of these things makes the others more difficult. Appeal to the “middle” too much and your base grows restless, and eventually disgusted enough to stay home on Election Day. Play to your base and you make independents nervous, along with firing up the other side’s core supporters.
Insufficient appeal to independent voters is often cited as the fatal flaw in candidates beloved by the conservative base. (It never seems to be a problem for liberal candidates from the Democrat Party, who are never described in the media as “extremists” who “frighten away moderates.”) No brand of conventional wisdom is received as eagerly as the diagnosis of conservative extremism.
The great challenge for conservatives, when appealing to independent voters in the next few elections, is that moderate measures cannot effectively combat extremism. How can we respond to the massive leftward swing of the past few years without proposing some “extreme” courses of action? The statist Obama economy is a massive dead weight crushing the American chest. It cannot be removed with gentle pressure.
Successful appeals to independent voters must begin with the understanding that, contrary to common media portrayals, they’re not all the same. The composition of the independent voter pool changes over time – it’s not the same today as it was in 2008.
A fair number of “independents” are better described as ignorant. They don’t follow the issues closely. They describe themselves as moderate or independent because they think it makes them sound intelligent and open-minded. Those who really would consider voting for either party’s candidate tend to make up their minds late in the election cycle.
This assessment might sound dismissive, but I have no contempt for these people. In a free country, they shouldn’t have to become experts on a hundred complex topics to cast an informed vote. A just and disciplined Republic does not punish those who express no great interest in charting its course. No one should have to worry that a poorly researched vote will lead to the seizure of his property or business.
Conservatives will always have trouble appealing to the disengaged segment of the independent population, because we won’t be able to match the Left’s control over popular culture for the foreseeable future… and ignorant voters are heavily swayed by the opinions of television journalists and entertainers. They’re most likely to hear messages pumped through the sub-woofers of mass media, and they view agreement with the pop-culture hive as the best way to seem informed with minimal effort.
If these people can be reached at all, it’s usually through a combination of wit and charisma. This is the paradox of Sarah Palin’s relationship with casual independents: they respond to lazy cultural slander like the Tina Fey caricature, so they give her poor marks in opinion polls… but she’s also one of the few prominent conservatives with a decent chance of charming them.
Some independents are passive. They don’t want to get sucked into any great crusades. They tend to vote for the candidate who seems most sensible and reliable. They fled John Kerry in droves when the “reporting for duty” glow of the 2004 Democratic convention faded, and he started looking downright creepy. An intelligent, committed conservative candidate should be able to do well with these people in 2012, by pointing out that the carnivorous government created by the Democrats will not leave them alone. The only choices at this point are active resistance, or submission. Independent voters in search of stability should be reminded there’s no sense in maintaining a straight and true course that leads right off the edge of a cliff.
There is danger in pursuing the votes of these people too aggressively. They become alarmed at the prospect of significant changes to the status quo… and the status quo is killing us. If Obama hadn’t come along, it would have ruined us in twenty years, instead of ten. If the Republicans go frumming off on a doomed quest to land this relatively small portion of the electorate, they risk alienating their base… and then losing the passive vote to a Democrat establishment that will always be ready to promise them more, at absolutely no cost, of course.
On the other hand, the passive vote is becoming profoundly disenchanted with the Democrats, precisely because they are beginning to pay a painful cost for those wonderful benefits and entitlements. They’re willing to respect the moral imperative of the welfare state when they believe faceless rich people will pick up the tab. Double-digit unemployment, frightening economic news, and the looming shadow of massive middle-class tax hikes make the embrace of the maternal State feel suffocating. Practical arguments are most effective with them. The aura of incompetence congealing around the Obama Administration worries them. They might not know much about the Constitution, but they’d really like to know why their retirement plans are crumbling to dust.
At the moment, I think the largest component of the independent electorate consists of confused moderates. These are people who sincerely wish to remain open to all points of view… entertaining both appeals to liberty, and the idea that only a powerful government can address certain issues. The party in power naturally tends to bleed voters into this group, particularly when things are not going well. That means the current independent pool includes a good number of folks who normally lean Democrat, and have no strong philosophical objection to immense, maternal government, but are uneasy about the evidence of its failure littering the evening news. They know something is wrong, and they’re grudgingly prepared to hear the other side’s explanation… but they recoil from angry partisanship. They want to hear solutions, not insults, and explanations instead of accusations.
This makes appealing to them in 2012 difficult, because what has been happening to this country makes a lot of us angry. It’s hard not to be outraged by outrages.
I think the key is found through explanation, as mentioned above. Big Government is sold to moderates as a series of solutions, when in fact it’s a regime of imperatives. These programs may be subject to some future modification, but it’s virtually impossible to eliminate them… without becoming precisely the type of fiery extremist moderates run away from. In this way, “moderation” is made to serve the interests of aggressive government. Each expansion of its power is sold as a reasonable solution to an intractable problem, only to evolve into a permanent feature of public life. Once these programs calcify, their continued survival becomes the accepted “moderate” position forever.
The radical expansion of the State has left no room for thoughtful moderates. If they wish to have any meaningful choices in the future at all, the reckless bloat of the Obama years must be forcefully cut away. In a few years, there will be no “middle of the road” positions on socialized medicine – only meek compliance, or savage combat against a system that will fight to the death to protect itself. There will be no room for polite questions about automatic tax increases to pay for the gold bricks piled on the government’s accelerator pedal. The State will have increasingly less patience for any questions at all.
It will be the task of the next Republican presidential candidate to explain that, before anyone can honestly claim to be a “centrist,” this country has to journey quite a distance to the Right. No one who truly desires to be independent can be a passive accomplice to a system that must eliminate the concept of independence to survive. It’s an explanation that must be delivered with a winning combination of humor, logic, and determination… plus a strong dose of optimism, because we can make that journey.
We should also embrace the importance of being honest with independent voters. A mandate which lasts beyond the next election is needed. Democrats often celebrate elections as great victories, because they know an activist President and willing Congress can easily nourish new growth from a hungry State. Conservatives must understand that electoral victory is the beginning of a great undertaking, not an end in itself. Great challenges lie ahead, stretching across years to come, and we owe all Americans the respect of speaking clearly about them.
Let moderate voters understand that the Democrats have built a government which has no further use for them, except as dupes. The Left claims the power to write their destiny, while the Right believes the future belongs to citizens, not the ruling class. That shouldn’t be a tough choice for any sort of independent person to make.
Cross-posted at Hot Air.
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Hi Doc. Interesting article; I usually read all of your pieces over at Hot Air. I’m an independent, but definitely a conservative. I started out as a Democrat, sort of a family tradition. I voted for Ronald Reagan twice, etc. As I grew older and starting following politics more closely, I became independent. My values just didn’t line up with the Democrat party.
Speaking of HotAir, can you help me with a problem? I think I’m registered there but I don’t know my password, and the automatic password thing will not mail me a new one. I would love to be able to comment over there. Is there some other way I can re-register or get a new password? Thanks, and keep up the great writing.
DZ:
Once again, an excellent essay!
However, I am less sanguine about the future than you are, for several reasons:
1) I expect the Dems to cheat, in order to prevent the GOP from getting control of either the house or the senate.
2) I have no faith in the GOP leadership to do anything drastic to entitlement programs. In my view this is absolutely critical to decreasing the power of the state.
3) Approximately 100 million people in this country receive some sort of benefit check from the US federal government. I can think of no one in the country who would have the cojones to stand up and tell all these people they’re getting either a big cut in benefits, or no benefits at all.
In my view, you put it quite well when you said that one of the alternatives would be “savage combat against a system that will fight to the death to protect itself”. I think that’s where we’re headed, sooner rather than later.
Best regards,
Doc,
Another fine essay, but …
A perchance smaller segment is the one I belong to:
“stealth conservative”.
After watching the transmorgrification of some elephants into rinos, I decided I had had enough.
No more would I have to hear their prerecorded calls for money and votes.
No pollsters come to my door to ask me my opinion.
But it is there planted firmly and deep, undercover and unknown until I pull the lever.
I’m an “independent.” I used to be a Libertarian; now I’m a libertarian. I’m mostly conservative, but I don’t like a lot of things a central government wants to do, even (or especially) a conservative one. Basically, I’m with Gary; the elephants have turned into rinos. A true conservative is libertarian. Bill Buckley was one.
I think most of America yearns for a Reagan-like leader, one who is proud of America and it’s exceptional-ism, one who encourages people of all backgrounds to ‘be all they can be’ and not to come begging the the government to lift them into some imaginary sense of achievement.
I do not remember much about Reagan’s actual time in office as I was in Jr. High and High School, but I do remember much talk about one thing President Reagan brought to America when he took office:
Nationalism
The emotion of nationalism goes hand in hand with an individuals own self-pride. It can make you or break you.
America would welcome with open arms someone who would be willing to bring back the shine to this City on a Hill.
“A fair number of “independents” are better described as ignorant.”
“Some independents are passive.”
“At the moment, I think the largest component of the independent electorate consists of confused moderates.”
Doc – you may pretend that you are not being dismissive or judgmental with this essay but you are. Those that don’t think lock-step with Republican or Neo-Con dogma are dismissed as ignorant, liberal tools that also happen to be terrorist appeasers.
Ignorant, passive and confused can be used to describe any number of people from any political party. Republicans and Democrats do not have a monopoly on being well informed. I submit that many Independents are better informed then are the Republicans or Democrats because we were smart enough to see through the lies of both parties long ago.
Perhaps Republicans would garner more support from Independents if they didn’t offer up candidates like, oh I dunno, John McCain. Republicans could also try not calling us a bunch of childish names because we happen to have a different political philosophy. Hint – that’s what Republicans accuse Liberals of doing.
I generally enjoy your writing even though I don’t find myself agreeing with much.
“Tennessee Budd says: A true conservative is libertarian. Bill Buckley was one.”
TB – Bill Buckley was a Neo-Con anti-communist (nothing wrong with anti-commie) for much of his life becoming somewhat anti-war towards the end, however, at no point could he be remotely considered (L)libertarian. As far as the “conservative is libertarian” myth goes, it’s, well, just a myth. Until their actions prove that they truly are supporters of small, constitutionally limited government (nothing indicates they are, not even the Tea-Partiers) everything they say is just rhetoric.
B
cntrlfrk – You know who else was a fan of Nationalism? Adolph Hitler. Don’t confuse patriotism with nationalism.
To clarify – I’m not comparing Reagan to Hitler. Reagan was a patriot not a nationalist.
[...] usual, Doctor Zero has a great post up at his blog. He is focusing on the election and looking at the independent vote, which swings [...]
[...] Zero has a carefully thought out proposal on how to save America through mass democracy, through getting 50% of the voters plus one behind the measures necessary to [...]
Well I would say inattentive rather than ignorant, but the liberal media takes advantage of that, and buries it’s memes in entertainment, sports, fashion, education, et al. The
Fenton agency has a whole archipelago of left wing organizations that effectively spam
every aspect of public life
Benjamin
I had the same problem once with my password at Hot Air. After failed attempts to get a response from Hot Air I typed in ‘WordPress’ in the search box of my e-mail account. Fortunately the results brought up my original e-mail confirmation with my password. I would try that first and then if that doesn’t work maybe Doc can help you out by contacting Ed or Allahpundit for you. That is if they actually like Doc Zero and will return his e-mails.
Doctor Zero another excellent article.
@ Benjamin:
Thank you so much for this op-ed piece.
As an Independent voter, I want to thank you for revealing the true opinion of conservatives, who seem to regard Independents as too stupid and lazy to research issues because they don’t lockstep agree with everything that comes out of your enlightened, godlike mouths.
And for revealing it to us, so we know what you really think of us and we can vote Democratic in November.
“Greg says:
July 23, 2010 at 11:59 am
3) Approximately 100 million people in this country receive some sort of benefit check from the US federal government. I can think of no one in the country who would have the cojones to stand up and tell all these people they’re getting either a big cut in benefits, or no benefits at all. ”
If some pols would handle this properly, it wouldn’t have to be as big a concern. Yes, many people are currently getting benefits of some kind….as the libs so often like to throw out there when we say something against govt. control of health care (and they are losing the argument). They always point out the folks who are protesting are on medicare or SS. Which is true…but they know it isn’t sustainable. If the repubs would drive home the concept that the changes will be made for younger generations, but that they plan to keep the commitments to the ones for whom it is to late to change course now. I don’t know…I think it can be done.
@ zeno
Thank you so much for this op-ed piece.
As an Independent voter, I want to thank you for revealing the true opinion of conservatives, who seem to regard Independents as too stupid and lazy to research issues because they don’t lockstep agree with everything that comes out of your enlightened, godlike mouths.
And for revealing it to us, so we know what you really think of us and we can vote Democratic in November.
:
Wow, so you have decided to vote Dem because some conservative blogger hurt your little feelings some 4 months prior to the election? Glad you are, ahem, researching the issues and are not stupid and stuff….
‘Carnivorous Government’… Heh… That about sums it up.
And zeno, since you obviously missed the whole point and chose to have a knee jerk emotional reaction instead, we can be sure you were going to vote dem anyway. Give it a rest.
I was trying to be charitable, but maybe ignorant fits among a certain subset, who don’t have a clue what this country stands for, and don’t care to find out.
In short, the “moderates” are too lazy, or too timid, to learn anything worthwhile before going to the voting booth, and will cast their ballot for whomever asks the least of them mentally.
To perdition with them.
I have lived four decades on this earth and I am tired of having my fate decided by cows or sheep. To my candidates I say stand your ground, damn your cowardly hides, and stick for your principles— loudly and belligerently, if must be; anyone offended or scared off by your commitment to virtue was never going to follow you anyway.
“They describe themselves as moderate or independent because they think it makes them sound intelligent and open-minded.”
So true.
I say BS to the lot of you. Pure conviction is a dangerous mindset, for it saddles you with a horse to which you cannot untie yourself. The independent voter is not lazy, not uninformed, nor an elitist looking for some sort of pat on the back. As you self-proclaimed conservatives often bemoan, you get attached to too many RINOs, simply because you pull the lever marked (R). Shame on you, Doc; your appeal to pathos simply reinforces your own elitist attitude … that conservatism is the only path to wealth and prosperity. Bollocks.
DOne sounds suspiciously like zeno… hmmm… At any rate, DOne, I say your argument should consider intellectual cowardice. Oh hell, make that just plain cowardice. Failure to understand the cause and effect of things that have ample and endlessly repeated outcomes, whether due to ignorance, stupidity, or cowardice, does not allow for a noble and enlightened group. Most of your ‘independents fall into one of those three categories.