We’re getting close to a major congressional election, and the early maneuvers of the 2012 presidential race are under way.  That means it’s time to worry about independent voters again.

Independents are the battleground where national elections are fought.  The winning formula involves some combination of motivating the party base, suppressing the other party’s base, and gaining support from independent voters.  The tactics necessary to succeed at any one of these things makes the others more difficult.  Appeal to the “middle” too much and your base grows restless, and eventually disgusted enough to stay home on Election Day.  Play to your base and you make independents nervous, along with firing up the other side’s core supporters.

Insufficient appeal to independent voters is often cited as the fatal flaw in candidates beloved by the conservative base.  (It never seems to be a problem for liberal candidates from the Democrat Party, who are never described in the media as “extremists” who “frighten away moderates.”)  No brand of conventional wisdom is received as eagerly as the diagnosis of conservative extremism.

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On the most urgent matters facing the United States at the moment – including the economy, the Gulf oil spill, border security, and foreign policy – Obama and the Democrat Party have almost completely given up on addressing the actual crises.  They invest all of their energy in media manipulation and spin control.

This has produced some absolutely surreal moments, from Pete Stark raving about secure borders, to Nancy Pelosi smashing her frozen grin through the Broken Windows Fallacy, showering her audience with the bloody glass of pure ignorance.  President Obama has made plenty of contributions along these lines, most recently with the weird assertion that a shrinking workforce is actually good employment news.  The President’s followers pitched in with a delusional effort to declare him one of the greatest chief executives ever.

Meanwhile, the only thing Obama sees in the Gulf is the layer of media coverage floating on top of the oil slick.  He looks excited and engaged when dealing with the political dimensions of the problem – restricting media access, demonizing the private sector, giving speeches about how much he cares.  The actual oil spill leaves him completely paralyzed.  In fact, he seems honestly puzzled that anyone expects him to do anything except restrict media access, demonize the private sector, and give speeches about how much he cares.  The closest thing to a “solution” in his rhetoric involves Americans getting used to living with a more primitive economy that consumes less fossil fuel, while forking over more money for imaginary “green” jobs, so the ruling class can pretend it has achieved a state of high-tech harmony with nature.

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There are two Republican parties, and both had a candidate on the 2008 presidential ticket.  John McCain was the candidate of the thin-blooded aristocracy, tired men who dislike certain elements of their nominal constituency far more intensely than their political opposition.  They have no strenuous objection to the premises of the Left, as could be seen from McCain’s swift acceptance of the freedom-has-failed spin pushed by the Democrats during the 2008 financial crisis.  Many of them believe opposition to the Left’s emotional narrative is electoral suicide.  This also makes them reluctant to criticize Democrat candidates in harsh terms… which they have no reluctance to deploy against conservative primary opponents.  They might speak up against its worst excesses, but they have no serious argument with the basic concept of Big Government – remember “National Greatness Conservatism?”  They offer themselves as wiser, perhaps slightly more frugal drivers of the vast federal sandworm.  They invest great effort in cultivating relationships with the dinosaur media, which they perceive as an irresistible force dominating American politics.  They always look honestly surprised when these relationships disintegrate at crucial moments during national campaigns.

The other Republican party is young and vital.  On the 2008 ticket, its banner was carried by Sarah Palin.  It’s the yeoman wing of the party, composed of people with middle-class backgrounds and real-world business experience.  These people are appalled at the bloated mess in Washington, and the smaller but equally fatal tumors infecting many state capitols.  They see a government speeding toward systemic collapse, its doom spelled out in the simple math of unsustainable entitlements and economy-crushing taxation.  They’re in love with the American people, a sincere passion that rings from every speech Palin delivers.  Their idealism and energy leads them to stumble occasionally, and some veteran political operatives of the old Republican gentry are eager to give them a firm shove from behind.  They correctly view the dinosaur media as an implacable opponent, and sometimes waste energy complaining about it… but the evolution of Palin’s media presence demonstrates they are learning to control the media, instead of fighting it.

The yeoman wing of the Republican Party had a very good night on Tuesday.  Nikki Haley strode with dignity across the puddle of sleaze leaking from the old party machine in South Carolina, with Tim Scott right beside her, while long-term incumbent Bob Inglis was annihilated by movement conservative Trey Gowdy.  Mike Lee won a much narrower, but still significant, victory in Utah.

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